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Thursday, September 23, 2010

The Next Step

We're less than 48 hours away until the Cats take the field in Gainesville in search for their first win over Florida in 23 years. Over the course of the last three or four seasons, Rich Brooks and Joker Phillips have both talked about taking that "next step" up the ladder of the SEC. This is that opportunity! Florida is beatable this year and the Cats are on the upswing. A win Saturday could be the biggest regular season win in the history of Kentucky football.

Yes, I'm aware that the Cats beat the #1 team in the country and eventual National Champion, LSU, just a few years ago. This win would be bigger because of the ramifications it would have on the advancement of this program as a national power under Joker Phillips. It's also bigger because the Cats have positioned themselves as an "upper-echelon SEC team", according to Florida head coach Urban Meyer. This win could propel them to the top of the SEC East standings and a legitimate chance at making it to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.

In comparison to the 2007 win over LSU, what is different this time around? Why would this win be able to catapult the Cats up to the top of the final SEC standings unlike in 2007?

Here are the circumstances of the 2007 win over LSU:

  • The Cats went into that game off of a Thursday night loss at South Carolina. They already had an SEC loss under their belt going into that win.

  • The Cats played Tim Tebow's Florida team the very next week after that LSU win. The Cats came out of that tough stretch with a 2-2 record in the SEC

  • They still had tough games to play against a Top 10 Georgia program and a Tennessee team that was still pretty good.

  • Kentucky lost heartbreakers by single digits to UF, UGA, and UT. They also suffered a lot of injuries going into the Mississippi State game and were upset by the Bulldogs.

  • If things went their way here and then, UK could have won the East that year, but the SEC was incredibly tough. The Cats could have won just about any other league in the country fairly easily in 2007.

And here is where UK currently stands going into this Florida game:

  • The Cats are 3-0. A win over a "down" Florida team could make them 4-0.
  • The Cats then play Ole Miss after Florida, who has lost to Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt. A win over Florida likely means the Cats could start at least 5-0.
  • Following Ole Miss, the Cats will host an Auburn team that they defeated on the road a year ago. Auburn is improved, but this is certainly a winnable game. The Cats could be 6-0 at this point.
  • Perhaps the toughest game the rest of the year would be against South Carolina the week after Auburn. The Gamecocks, Gators, and Cats seem to be the biggest contenders for the SEC East Crown. But this competition is a far cry away from what the Cats stood up against in 2007.
  • After South Carolina, UK will be favored in every game the rest of the season in a down SEC East.
  • UK also benefits from uneven inter-division scheduling this season. UK avoids playing the top three teams from the SEC West. They don't play #1 Alabama, #10 Arkansas, or #15 LSU.
  • After playing UK, Florida has consecutive games against Alabama and LSU. South Carolina plays both Alabama and Arkansas.

Above all, the biggest difference this season could be the attitude and winning culture that Joker has created with "Operation: Win". They expect to win every game and they aren't afraid of anyone. With a win, there should be EXTREMELY high expectations for where this season will end. And even with a loss to the Gators on Saturday, the Cats could still be in a position to win the division. With UF and USC each with a couple of very tough games on their SEC West slate, I think it's fair to say the winner of this division could lose at least 2 conference games. The stars seem to be aligned to give the Cats a great opportunity. And with Joker already bringing in a top 20 recruiting class next year, a signature win like this could boost that class even higher for next year and years to come. That is why I think Saturday could be the biggest regular season win in the history of Kentucky football. It could be the one win that finally pushes the Cats over the hump.

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