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Thursday, November 12, 2009

Breaking down the Preseason Basketball AP Top 25

My overrated teams are highlighted in Red and I've made some comments on some teams that I expect to have good seasons that are ranked right where they should be. I don't really have an opinion either way with any of the teams with no comments made about them. The underrated teams are highlighted in green.

1. Kansas: with the most experienced and accomplished talent in the country and top recruit Xavier Henry aboard, the Jayhawks deserve to be #1, for now.

2. Michigan State: The Spartans overachieved last season and it showed against UNC. I don't think they're as talented as Kentucky. Two is a bit high, but I can't consider them "overrated" because they return everyone from a team that finished #2 a year ago. They're where they deserve to be, but I'm not sure if they'll stay quite this high all season, however, Tom Izzo will have them in the Top 10 in March, when it matters.

3. Texas: The Longhorns have a lot of freshman talent coming in as well as transfer Jai Lucas from Florida, but it seems like they are overrated every year in basketball. What does Rick Barnes ever do with his talent in March? Even with Kevin Durant, they did nothing. Texas was 23-12 last year. Kentucky was 22-14. The two teams' had similar teams a year ago....do you mean to tell me that Texas has improved more than Kentucky has in the off season? Really? Can anybody tell me with a straight face that Texas improved themselves more than Kentucky did and should be ranked higher? Please, give me a break.

4. Kentucky: It seems crazy to think that the 4th ranked team in the country could be underrated, but the voters of this poll have a sub-500 team from last year ranked because of one great freshman (Derrick Favors of Georgia Tech). With this logic, FOUR great freshman, returning All-American Patrick Patterson, and new head coach John Calipari should make enough impact on a 22-14 team from a year ago to be ranked in the top 2 or 3, at least above a 23-12 Texas team from last season. I feel like most experts think Kentucky is probably the #1 team in terms of talent, but stubbornly pick them lower because they want to believe that this young team is going to be a bust under Calipari. If you want this team to prove something first, I can respect that opinion, but don't also vote for a 12-19 Georgia Tech team in the polls because of one recruit (some are even picking GT as a Final Four team). Be consistent.

5. Villanova: Should win the Big East, and therefore, should be ranked in the Top 5.

6. North Carolina: The defending champs lose 4 out of 5 starters. A team has not won back to back titles after losing 4 starters since UCLA in the 1970's and that shouldn't happen this year either. UNC will always be a factor under Roy Williams and will be a top 10 team when it's all said and done. This team is no where close to the level of talent that there has been in the last several years in Chapel Hill, however, they're still ranked about where they should be.

7. Purdue
8. West Virginia

9. Duke: Duke could trade their entire roster with Central Connecticuit State and would somehow still be ranked in the Top 10. When was their last Final Four appearance anyway? Overrated. Waaay overrated.

10. Tennessee: The Vols have all the talent in the world, but they couldn't even beat last year's NIT version of Kentucky. It will be a major disappointment if Tennessee doesn't earn at least a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

11. Butler
12. Connecticut

13. California: Don't know much about Cal, but they only beat Murray State by 5 in thier opener. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now.

14. Washington

15. Michigan: The Wolverines were 9-9 in Big 10 play last season. Their recruiting class is good, but not good enough to all of a sudden make them a Top 15 team. They're overrated.

16. Ohio State

17. Oklahoma: hard to really say how the Sooners will be without Blake Griffin. Who do they have to replace him to justify being ranked at all? I'm going to say overrated.

18. Mississippi State: Their ranking all depends on the eligibility of Renaldo Sydney. Either way the Bulldogs are a Top 25 team. With him, they could be closer to a Top 10 team. I expect him to eventually be eligible, so I believe that in the end the Bulldogs will be better than this ranking. They're underrated.

19. Louisville: The Cardinals lose their top 2 scorers and rebounders in Terrance Williams and Earl Clark. They also lose veteran point guard, Andre McGee. Freshman Peyton Siva is talented, but won't be able to make up the difference of all the talent that the Cardinals have lost from a year ago. Could this season on the court be any uglier than the off season was for Rick Pitino and the Cards? Maybe not, but the Cardinals have lost a lot more than what they've gained in Siva and it looks like they're a little overrated.

20. Georgetown: The talent is there to be a Top 5 team, however, the talent was there last year too. The Hoyas need to put it together, but they're so loaded that I'm going to have to label them as underrated.

21. Dayton

22. Georgia Tech: I've already rambled enough on the Yellow Jackets. They were 12-19 last year. Not even John Wall all by himself would turn them into a serious contender, and Derrick Favors won't either. They're waaay overrated.

23. Illinois
24. Clemson

25. Minnesota: Tubby Smith has had his share of off-court problems this off season, but he always seems to get things under control as the season goes on and finds ways for his teams to make the NCAA Tournament. This year should be no different.

Not ranked and should be: Cincinnati and South Carolina

The Bearcats return top scorer Yancey Gates and add one of the best recruits in the nation, Lance Stephenson. Not a single vote? This team is definitely better than Georgia Tech and a handful of other ranked teams. The Bearcats are the most underrated team in the country. If the football team doesn't make it to the BCS Title game, their fans can jump off that bandwagon and jump right back onto the basketball bandwagon that they rode on during the Bob Huggins era. Mick Cronin appears to have the Bearcats back. As for the Gamecocks, they return two studs that turned down the NBA last season. One of them, Devan Downey, could be the best Point Guard in the nation behind John Wall.

1 comment:

  1. It doesn't surprise me that wilmhoff says Louisville is overrated and Kentucky is underrated. But overall, good writeup.

    ReplyDelete