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Thursday, November 19, 2009

Learning and Winning at the same time

Unlike the last two years under Billy Gillispie, the Cats are learning while winning at the same time in November. The 3-0 start is their best since the 2006-2007 season. Their schedule is considerably tougher as well. Last year the Cats appeared to actually be heading towards a good season when they found themselves at 16-4 overall, and 5-0 in the SEC last January. Those 16 wins, however, came in meaningless blowout wins over the likes of Delaware State, Longwood, Lamar, and Mississippi Valley State. They were defeating helpless teams ranked in the bottom 300's of the RPI rankings. After losing the opener to VMI, they followed up with forty and fifty point wins against the worst of the very worst teams in the nation, and obviously they did not improve and it showed in February as the Cats fell apart and missed the NCAA tournament for the first time in 18 years.

This year, they opened up with a solid win over Morehead State, an NCAA Tournament team that returns everyone from a year ago. Then, they squeaked past the Miami Redhawks who were 15 of 26 behind the 3 point line. Miami is a team that could win the MAC, but more than likely won't have too many shooting performances anywhere close to the one they had Monday night. And then tonight, we saw almost the same story, as the Cats struggled again with perimeter defense giving up 18 threes. This time the overall defense was a little better and actually did do some good things. The Bearkats of SHSU did make 18 three's, but they made them in 38 attempts. They were outscored 48-18 in the paint and only made 11 shots inside the 3 point line the entire game. Their shots inside were blocked by Wildcat defenders 12 times. These teams knew that they have no shot against the Cats inside with Patterson, Cousins, and Orton holding down the fort down low. Both teams' (Miami and SHSU) knew their only chance was to jack up a bunch of three's, and they made a lot of them. Some of them were contested, and some not at all.

It doesn't get any easier on Saturday against Rider, another mid-major team expected to win their conference and go to the NCAA Tournament. According to Calipari, they are a better shooting team than both Miami and Sam Houston State. They lost to Virginia tonight, but defeated #18 Mississippi State in their opener. Then, the Cats travel to Cancun, Mexico to face a Cleveland State team that beat Syracuse and Wake Forest a year ago. Calipari schedules these teams for a couple of reasons. One reason is they end up winning 2o games in their respective conferences, and improve UK's overall schedule and RPI rating, which helps seeding in the NCAA Tournament. This is how Memphis ended up still having top 10 ranked schedules while playing in Conference USA. They did not play any really bad teams outside the conference at all. These teams also help a young team like UK get better, while still being able to win early on while preparing for the big games against UNC, UConn, Louisville, and of course SEC play.

Bottom line is: the Cats need to get much better at perimeter defense if they want to be a Championship team playing in April. It obviously needs a lot of work, but UMass played good defense, Memphis played good defense, and I have no doubts that this young Kentucky team will play very good all-around defense come March. In fact, their athletic ability alone should make them one of the better defensive teams in the country once they get focused and disciplined enough on both sides of the ball. The main issue is communication on the defensive side. Individually, a number of Cats' have solid numbers in steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds. They're just not playing good TEAM defense together and they're not communicating, which makes sense for a bunch of Freshman in November. They're still learning and adjusting to the college game (mainly on the defensive side), but take a look at these individual offensive (and defensive) numbers tonight.

John Wall: 21 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, 2-4 from 3-pt.
Eric Bledsoe: 19 points, 5 assists, 2 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 5-7 from 3-pt.

(good to see those two play well together tonight)

Darius Miller: 15 points, 1 rebound, 3 assists, 1 block, 3-6 from 3-pt.
Patrick Paterson: 20 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 block

And the MVP for probably the second straight game with another double double....

DeMarcus Cousins: 27 points, 18 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 2 steals.


One thing is certain: this team is very, very fun to watch individually. Once they put it all together collectively, they'll be very hard to beat.

I'll also predict this: UNC, UConn, and Louisville will certainly match up better with us inside....but none of these three teams will make 15 or more three pointers against us. It's just not going to happen. Even if our perimeter defense doesn't improve (I'm sure it will), at some point, teams (even the best ones on our schedule) are going to miss some shots and we will win 25 plus games, easily. The difference between a good 25 win season, and what we all expect and want (number 8) depends on how this team learns to play defense together.

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